Comments on Nats Insider: One month to go

Nobody is counting the Cubs in the Fielder mix. Ju...

2012-01-18T21:38:43.496-05:00

Nobody is counting the Cubs in the Fielder mix. Just because Theo already signed a first baseman, don't count him out. Remember he had Adam LaRoche in Boston--for 6 games, then traded him to Atlanta. He hasn't dropped his bomb yet, and I could easily see a multi-team, multi-player deal, the kind that Theo has made in the past. Heck, we could be in on it.

If the Nats sign Fielder(big if) then I could see ...

2012-01-18T16:19:06.838-05:00

If the Nats sign Fielder(big if) then I could see them offering Laroche, Marrero (no good to the Nats if Fielder signs) plus cash to TB for Upton. They may still have to trade Lombardozzi also but then get back another minor league player in return that isn't as close to being in the majors as Lombardozzi.

DMcC

Pay to Play: I'm aware of that. But that was...

2012-01-18T13:23:54.553-05:00

Pay to Play:

I'm aware of that. But that was the case two months ago, too. Yet they didn't trade Upton for a pile of prospects then. You really think they value a high-risk LaRoche more than a pile of prospects? If not, why would they turn down the prospects but trade for LaRoche? If they're trying to contend this year they're better off with Upton than LaRoche even if he costs a few million more, and you can be sure that they know it.

If they want to trade Upton for a cheap B rental they can hang a flag outside the stadium and plenty of clubs will make offers better than LaRoche. People seem to be overestimating his value and completely forgetting that he hasn't played a single inning of baseball since undergoing surgery. You don't throw away an asset like BJ Upton for that. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.

Bowdenball asked me two good questions. 1. Who wo...

2012-01-18T13:22:41.798-05:00

Bowdenball asked me two good questions.

1. Who would I add to the bench? I would've signed Hairston for the money the Brewers/Dodgers gave him, and I would've kept Nix. I think the team's lack of foresight on these losses will hurt us. I'm saying an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

2. How can I say the Nats will be about the same, overall in 2012 as they were in 2011, while I say they'll have better pitching and about the same offense? Doesn't better pitching and the same offense mean more wins?

I think if you look at our runs scored/runs allowed numbers in this thread, in light of my comment, I think you can picture a number of games where instead of losing 3-1 we lose 2-1, and instead of losing 4-2 we lose 3-2. This is what I think happens when your pitching reduces the number of runs scored against the Nationals in 2012, while our offense stays about the same.

I bet Jordan Zimmermann would agree with me on this. His 2011 W-L record is not impressive at all, but not because of his (outstanding) pitching, but because of the lack of run support. Going by memory, I think they starved Strasburg a number of times going back to his first year, and last year I think they starved Livan, I mean at historic levels, as well.

This morning on ESPN Tim K. said that if the Range...

2012-01-18T13:10:20.188-05:00

This morning on ESPN Tim K. said that if the Rangers sign Fielder, Hamilton is gone (next year). He made it either-or and then said he thought Hamilton was done in Texas.

All I can say is the next 7 days should be interes...

2012-01-18T13:02:10.850-05:00

All I can say is the next 7 days should be interesting

Bowdenball, they lose Upton after this year with n...

2012-01-18T12:48:38.937-05:00

Bowdenball, they lose Upton after this year with no comp picks on him. Tampa needs a cost controlled 1st baseman.

Here's the SF Giants as currently constructed:...

2012-01-18T12:45:22.249-05:00

Here's the SF Giants as currently constructed:

Pagan - CF

Sanchez - 2B

Posey - C

Sandoval - 3B

Cabrera - LF

Huff/Belt - 1B

Schierholtz - RF

Crawford - SS

If they were an American League team I could see them going after Prince. Its either Texas or Washington and still betting on Washington w/ LaRoche traded to Detroit.

Steve M: Even if we assume that they want to shed...

2012-01-18T12:42:50.110-05:00

Steve M:

Even if we assume that they want to shed Upton's salary- and I'm not convinced that they do- I think they can do a lot better than a year of Adam LaRoche in return, even if he's basically free.

Those "7 million reasons" weren't enough to convince the Rays to accept offers for Upton before, and those offers included prospects under club control for many years. LaRoche is a high-risk, low-reward 32 year old at a position where there's a huge seller's market at the moment. I don't see how he gets you Upton where a pile of cost-controlled prospects did not.

Having Fielder in the Texas discussion has been go...

2012-01-18T12:38:47.692-05:00

Having Fielder in the Texas discussion has been good leverage to get the Darvish price down but Wally could be right and they sign both.

Can they afford both and keep Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli next year? Hard to say. I agree, writing that $51.7 million today is a big rock!

http://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-rangers/2012/1/17/2714719/texas-rangers-nelson-cruz-mike-napoli-go-to-arbitration

Caveat emptor. Opt-out clauses are only as good as...

2012-01-18T12:29:08.357-05:00

Caveat emptor. Opt-out clauses are only as good as the performance of the player meaning they won't be opting out if Prince in year 3 is playing like Adam Dunn cira 2011.

The opt-out isn't a "given". If it was, you do a straight 3 year deal which Boras is not doing.

After Texas writes that $51.7 million check to the Ham Fighters + $10 million for Darvish's 2012 salary, they are going to be extremely cash strapped this year. They still have to settle up with Napoli.

I take back the Lannan portion of my previous post...

2012-01-18T12:21:24.914-05:00

I take back the Lannan portion of my previous post. The logic criticizing that portion of a trade was formidable. How about Desmond and Brown/Moore?

As for Binx and Will's discussion about Cameron, it would seem very likely that he is finished as an offensive force. If Cameron makes the team and is hitting .194 on May 1, he will likely be dropped shortly thereafter.

I think Texas winds up with Fielder, regardless of...

2012-01-18T12:19:23.914-05:00

I think Texas winds up with Fielder, regardless of Darvish. It will be a 'hefty' commitment, to be sure, but they are flush with TV cash, they are built to win now, they need a 1B more than any other contender, they have the Angels as their main competitor who made big moves this offseason and they are a very aggressive organization. From Fielder's view, they are built to be successful for a while, and that is a good hitters park (downside is switching leagues).

I hope that we get him, but Texas may sign both today.

Bowdenball, its called 7 million reasons. Their pa...

2012-01-18T12:14:47.772-05:00

Bowdenball, its called 7 million reasons. Their payroll was at $41.1 million last year on Opening Day. Right now the Rays are at $56.9 million if they keep Niemann and Upton and Shields. They want to be at $52 million or less. Coincidence?

Tampa if you include Matt Moore has 6 starting pitchers right now: James Shields, David Price, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson & Moore & Niemann.

They have to shed payroll. Will it be Upton ($7mm) who is their 2nd highest paid player behind Shields ($8mm) or will it be Shields or will it be Niemann($3.1mm) or a combination of 2 players.

Again, I'll come back and admit I was totally ...

2012-01-18T12:04:42.402-05:00

Again, I'll come back and admit I was totally wrong when I am totally wrong, but if Fielder retreats to an opt-out at year three, he becomes extremely attractive to teams who think they are in a position to go for the trophy and rings now and the next couple of years. You assume, as a franchise, he will leave after year three. So who would think Fielder is a bargain at 3 years-$75M? Yes, the Nats. But also the Giants and Lemire over on CNN/SI makes a case it could still be the Rangers. If Fielder decides he is going to take a deal with a three year opt out, he'll go someplace where he can both mash AND have a shot at a ring. I love my team, but I wonder that both Texas and SF aren't better fits for him in that scenario.

A lot of fun to speculate.

SteveM, Luke Scott played mostly Left Field last y...

2012-01-18T12:03:53.268-05:00

SteveM, Luke Scott played mostly Left Field last year which is possible for Tampa if they got LaRoche. Desmond Jennings moves to CF. I'm sure Joe Maddon will figure it out.

To JD, they are not signing Kotchman, Pena or Lee after shelling out $6 million for Luke Scott.

Let me see if I have this right . . .. Incentive ...

2012-01-18T12:03:20.027-05:00

Let me see if I have this right . . .. Incentive for TB to trade Upton for Lannan is to "get [him] off their books and out of their locker room . . .."

And we want Upton, why? Because Nats can afford to waste money on a knucklehead?

Steve M: The Rays made the playoffs last year. T...

2012-01-18T12:01:57.957-05:00

Steve M:

The Rays made the playoffs last year. They want to contend. Even a 100% healthy LaRoche costs them a couple wins as compared to Upton.

I think you're really overestimating the Rays' motivation to move Upton. It's not like they haven't had plenty of chances to do so in recent years, and by all accounts have turned down a LOT more than just a cheap year of an 32 year old 1-2 WAR first baseman coming off a serious injury. I don't what their plan is for Upton, but they obviously value his 2012 season more than that or they would have dealt him already.

Binx, Last year, the non starting OFs (those not n...

2012-01-18T12:00:20.949-05:00

Binx,
Last year, the non starting OFs (those not named Morse, Werth or Ankiel) got 1,127 plate appearances. It would be wildly optimistic to hope for less than 300 ABs from those 5 guys.

I'd be willing to bet Cameron, alone, gets nearly 300 plate appearances. Unless he has an abysmal ST, he'll make the team as the RH CF option/back up corner OF. All it will take is a minor injury to either Morse or Werth for those plate appearances to skyrocket.

Diz, would you rather leave LaRoche wilting on the...

2012-01-18T11:59:57.325-05:00

Diz, would you rather leave LaRoche wilting on the bench or trade him for a real CF? I will take the CF and let Davey figure out what to do with 4 outfielders.

That's a good problem to have.

NatsJack in Florida said... With all the arms ...

2012-01-18T11:56:14.356-05:00
NatsJack in Florida said...
With all the arms the Rays have in their organization, why in the world do you think they'd want Lannan?

11:41 AM

Agreed, they don't really need him or his $5+ million salary.

Tampa's last holes to fill is 1st base and DH to go with Luke Scott. If they trade Upton they may want a veteran outfielder to go with Brandon Guyer, Desmond Jennings, Sam Fuld and Matt Joyce.

If we sign Fielder, there is no room for a CF with...

2012-01-18T11:51:35.220-05:00
If we sign Fielder, there is no room for a CF with Morse, Werth, and Harper on the roster come June.

SteveM, here's the problem with your thinking....

2012-01-18T11:47:53.208-05:00
SteveM, here's the problem with your thinking. Nats sign Prince w/ lets say $18 million in 2012 in a backloaded contract then eat lets say $6 million for LaRoche and take on $7 million of Upton.

That's a net of $27 million added to the budget.

Upton signed for $7 million yesterday which gives ...

2012-01-18T11:44:09.909-05:00
Upton signed for $7 million yesterday which gives them no room in their budget to sign a $8 million 1st baseman/DH as was reported after looking at getting Carlos Lee w/ Houston eating 1/2 his salary. Tampa gets Upton off their books and out of their locker room which is a goal they have tried to accomplish for a long time.

If the Nats traded LaRoche to Tampa on a deal where the Nats pick up most of his salary, that should entice them. Tampa's last piece on their shopping list was a 1st baseman. They may also trade Jeff Niemann for outfield depth.

Nat Tee Shirt: Who would you have them add? Benc...

2012-01-18T11:42:57.453-05:00
Nat Tee Shirt:

Who would you have them add? Bench players are bench players for a reason- they're not good enough to start. Hairston was a good find, and that's why he's now signed for two years and six million dollars with the Dodgers. Guys like him don't grow on trees and you can't predict them. DeRosa is as good a bet to be productive as any other available bench type.

I also don't understand your logic in projecting that "the pitching is stronger now" but that if the offense is the same as 2011 we'll still win about the same number of games. Wouldn't stronger pitching + similar offense = more wins?